Elon Musk’s interview with Larry Kudlow laid bare his frustration with the “nastiness of government.” While he jokes at the start, by the end, he admits running SpaceX, Tesla, and his political crusades is “really hard.” His focus is splintered, and it’s showing. Employees are demoralized, and Tesla’s stock has tanked 15% this year. Meanwhile, Musk’s missteps—like botching claims about a $500B fraud report (which mostly covered Trump’s term, not Biden’s)—are eroding his credibility. Sound familiar? It’s the same fog-of-war vibe Trump fans critiqued for years.
Tesla’s Real-World Nightmares
- Vandalism & Fear: Tesla stores and cars are targets. Vandals key cars, spray swastikas, and even fire shots at dealerships. Repair costs? Up to $5K—a hit most can’t afford. Insurance? Often won’t cover “hate crimes.”
- Cyber Wars: X’s crash this week (blamed on Ukrainian IPs, but maybe Russia’s doing) isn’t just an X problem—it’s a Musk problem. The more he’s hated, the more Tesla becomes a proxy.
- China & Australia Slump: Tesla’s sales in Australia dropped 71% due to luxury taxes, left-hand drive costs, and expired subsidies. In China, BYD and Zomi are killing it—with 34-week waitlists vs. Tesla’s 2–4 weeks.
Valuation: A Tale of Two Teslas
Tesla’s PEG ratio has fallen to 2.63 , making it “fair” if it’s a software/robotaxi company (FSD, Optimus). But if it’s just a carmaker? Overpriced by 50% ($113 fair value vs. current price).
- Bull Case:
- FSD & robotaxis could redefine mobility.
- Optimus bots might add $34B in revenue.
- Musk’s “moonshot” vision could still pay off.
- Bear Case:
- Margins are collapsing (free cash flow dropped from $14.7B to $3B).
- No pricing power in a recession-hit world.
- Musk’s distractions (and credibility issues) are hurting.
The Numbers Game
- Cash Is King: Tesla has $36.5B in the bank, no debt worries.
- Delivery Woes: Analysts predict Q1 deliveries could hit a 10-quarter low .
- 2026 Projections:
- If Tesla delivers 3M cars and nails FSD, a $244 stock price by 2026 is possible.
- If not? A $155–$170 price tag—if you ignore Optimus dreams.
Recession Risks & Musk’s AGI Gamble
- Recession? Tesla thrived in 2022 (low rates + jobs = buyers). Now? Savings are gone, jobs are shaky, and luxury EVs are a stretch.
- AGI or Bust: FSD’s success hinges on artificial general intelligence—a moonshot Musk claims he’s chasing. If it fails? Tesla’s “service-based valuation” crumbles.
Final Verdict: High-Risk, High-Reward
Tesla’s stock is a rollercoaster —and Musk’s off-road adventures (politics, cyber wars) aren’t helping.
- Buy If:
- You’re all-in on Musk’s AI moonshots.
- You can stomach years of volatility.
- Avoid If:
- You’re worried about China’s slowdown, cyber risks, or Musk’s distraction.
The Bottom Line: Tesla’s future isn’t just about cars—it’s about whether Elon Musk can juggle politics, AI, and global competition without dropping the ball. For now? It’s a gamble only the brave should take.
